root cause of poverty
The Gathering Storm of a World without Steady Work
Stephen Hawking warned that the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could tear society apart. Dr. Hawking’s words should inspire caution in all who deal with AI. We should heed lessons learned at home and abroad over past industrial revolutions. It is time for the policy makers to prepare the country for the worst: a world without work.
The exact scope of the disruption caused by AI is hard to forecast. Many analysts predict that AI will permanently displace large numbers of US workers. The Boston Consulting Group, for instance, forecasts that robots may perform up to 35 percent of manufacturing jobs worldwide by 2025. PwC assessed that 42 percent of jobs in the United States are at high risk of being replaced by AI in the next ten years. The United States is in for a long and turbulent ride. There will be long periods during which millions of Americans in manufacturing, accounting and other industries find themselves without work. The AI revolution could leave millions unemployed for many years, or permanently, as Dr. Hawking warned. If it does, American society may be forced to rethink its social welfare system, beyond temporary relief for displaced workers.
The fate of American democracy will be on the line. Most Americans—both Democrats and Republicans—already say that the nation’s distribution of wealth is unfair. That majority will only grow as more and more middle class see their jobs robotized and as companies that replaced them enjoy larger windfalls. Mass public discontent as a result of rapid industrialization is not new.
Those risks were successfully mitigated in many cases. The British government headed off political unrest in the early nineteenth century by giving in to workers’ demands for improved labor conditions, social welfare and political representation. The U.S. government did similarly. The original Progressivism was a direct response to urban activism and the threat of spreading unrest if workers’ demands weren’t met.
There is little reason—yet—to predict revolution as a result of AI’s arrival in America. But it would be irresponsible to dismiss risk of mass unrest if the rise of AI leaves American workers unable to work and live dignified lives.
It is not too soon to lay the foundations for an American society that can survive—and thrive—in an era of artificial intelligence and the optional of human labor in most of traditional jobs in our society.
labor day
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